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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-12T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17947/-1
CME Note: Very faint partial halo W in C2,C3 (front not seen in COR2A b/c of a large overlapping data gap from 2021-10-11T19:23Z to 2021-10-12T09:23Z). Source: eruption from AR 2882 at N16W30 seen in AIA 193/304 starting after 2021-10-12T02:03Z and associated with multiple higher B-class flares from this active region and an EUV wave seen in AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sharp increase in B_total, reaching 9.76 nT at 2021-10-16T01:40Z, accompanied by pileup and speed increase, in addition to field component rotation indicating potential flux rope and momentary temperature rise indicating potential CME arrival. Kp increased to 3 during the 2021-10-16T00:00Z-03:00Z synoptic period in response but decreased afterward. Field remained amplified for two days following arrival, indicating a complex L1 solar wind signature that included both a far-flank flux rope interaction and a subsequent high-speed stream arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-16T00:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-15T16:43Z (-0.5h, +0.5h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 8.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO B. For 24 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO B between about 2021-10-15T02:38Z and 2021-10-15T15:42Z (average arrival 2021-10-15T10:00Z) for 95% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-10-15T16:19Z and 2021-10-15T17:08Z (average arrival 2021-10-15T16:43Z) for 8% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-3 range (below minor to below minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_arrival_STB.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098_STB_stack.gif

## Notes:
This CME event (2021-10-12T03:24:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have a glancing blow at Solar Orbiter at 2021-10-14T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20211012-AL-005).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-10-13_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098/Detailed_results_20211012_032400_ncmes1_sims24_HILOX098.txt

Lead Time: 35.40 hour(s)
Difference: 7.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2021-10-14T12:45Z

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